Florida Power & Light is conducting its annual mock hurricane drill this week, simulating how it would respond if a hurricane struck the state and devastated the power grid. Hurricane Benito, with 135 mph winds, did not really hit on Wednesday, but it was imagined to be even stronger than real hurricanes Idalia and Ian, which seriously damaged portions of the state over the past two years.

Ian was one of the worst disasters ever to strike Florida, killing 150 people as it hit the Gulf Coast near Fort Myers in 2022, leaving millions without power. If Benito were a real storm, it likely would cause worse damage, as its imaginary path took it over the state’s most-populated area.

FPL’s territory covers almost Florida’s entire Atlantic Coast, much of its Gulf Coast south of Tampa and the far western Panhandle, where about 12 million people, or 55% of the population, reside.

“Every day we don’t have a storm is a day we are preparing for one,” said Ed DeVarona, FPL’s vice president of power delivery.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting the upcoming Atlantic and Gulf season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, will exceed the yearly average of seven tropical storms and seven hurricanes, and that three of the storms will be major. Not all hurricanes make landfall.

In Thursday’s drill, a computer simulated power outages. Crews working at FPL’s emergency operations center had to assess the fake damage and dispatch imaginary crews to make repairs.

FPL officials said making assessments has gotten easier over the past decade.

Instead of relying on customers to report outages and then sending crews to drive through the area to pinpoint the damage, sensors now tell FPL immediately where there are blackouts and locate the cause.

Drones are used to examine lines. These improvements lessen the time crews spend on each repair, meaning they can get more done in a day.

Also, more lines are underground and most above-ground wires are anchored by metal or concrete poles, not wood. That means fewer major repairs are needed.

“I can honestly say that each of these tools … make it easier for line workers like myself,” said Mike Ochoa, a senior line specialist.

The system is 900 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is forecast to move southwestward at 10 mph to 15 mph.

It will move into an area of stronger upper-level winds on Wednesday night and Thursday, which will inhibit the system from strengthening.

It has a 10% chance of developing in the next seven days.

Only 10 tropical storms have ever hit Florida prior to the start of hurricane season on June 1, according to the Orlando Sentinel. The earliest tropical disturbance ever recorded in the state blew through on Feb. 3, 1952, when a tropical storm hit Miami, according to the National Hurricane Center’s database.

Climatologist Brian McNoldy, of the University of Miami, said a disturbance at this time of year was not all that unusual.

“It’s up in the subtropics. It’s interesting that the National Hurricane Center flagged something in April, but it’s late April, and it’s small. It has about a 12-hour window to do something.”

The Atlantic Basin has had record high sea surface temperatures this year. According to McNoldy’s social media posts on X, “the ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) is as high today as it was on May 24 last year. And, it’s as high as the average value on June 27.”

The ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) is as high today as it was on May 24 last year. And, it's as high as the average value on June 27.

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy)

Additionally, El Niño, which typically hinders hurricane formation with strong wind shear, is fading. Both of those factors have led forecasters to predict an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.

Forecasters expect a La Niña to kick in by July or August, which can enhance hurricane formation with weaker trade winds and more low pressure in the area of hurricane formation.

As for this relatively early tropical disturbance, McNoldy said, “I wouldn’t read a whole lot into that for the big picture of what might happen this year.”

Their report estimates the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes and offers percentage chances of landfall in vulnerable regions. Its also looks at key factors, first of which is sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

“The die is cast for 2024,” said Phil Klotzbach, atmospheric researcher at Colorado State University, when looking at the current sea-surface temperature in the Atlantic, and how those will create an active season. Even if the Atlantic warmed as slowly as it ever has into the peak of the season, the temperatures would be “top five” in terms of warmth. “1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal — that’s a big deal. That’s a lot of warmth.”

The numbers

The research team is forecasting 23 named storms.

The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4, and the active .

Eleven of those storms will likely reach hurricane strength, the report said, meaning winds of 74 mph or greater.

The 1991 to 2020 average is 7.2, and 2023 had seven.

And five of the hurricanes will likely reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 and 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, they said.

The 1991 to 2020 average is 3.2, and 2023 had three.

Previously, the highest number of hurricane Colorado State ever predicted was nine, in 1995, which ended up with 11 hurricanes.

The Colorado team forecasts hurricane activity in 2024 will be quite high — about 170% of the average season from 1991 to 2020.

2023 clocked in at about 120% of the average season.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall.

It said the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, had a 34% chance.

The average from 1880–2020 is 21%.

On the Gulf side from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border, the odds were 42%.

The average from 1880 to 2020 was 27%.

Another statistic the report focused on was the chances of a storm tracking within 50 miles of a given state.

Florida was the state that fared the worst in those forecasts. It had a 75% chance of a hurricane tracking within 50 miles of its coast. The 1880 to 2020 average was 56%.

And Florida had a 44% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of its coast. The 1880 to 2020 average was 29%

The factors

The main factor in the prediction of an intense hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is the record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures this spring, said the report.

“I think what stands out the most about 2024 is just how warm the Atlantic is at present,” said project lead Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. “Even if the tropical Atlantic warmed at the lowest observed rate between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, it would still be one of the warmest tropical Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.”

This warm water has several ramifications.

Warm ocean waters act as fuel for hurricanes, therefore “a very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season.”

The high sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic also create a more unstable atmosphere, which hurricanes like.

Another ripple effect of the exceptionally warm water temperatures in the eastern, central tropical and subtropical Atlantic this spring is a weaker subtropical (Bermuda) high. That, in turn, means weaker trade winds. The less wind the more the water heats up. “These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season,” said the report.

El Niño and La Niña

Forecasters are predicting that the El Niño that brought South Florida a relatively wet winter will mellow shortly, and is likely to shift to a La Niña by peak hurricane season, August through October.

La Niñas typically reduce wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear topples hurricanes, so La Niña, if it forms, may favor hurricane formation.

“Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña,” the report said, “the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.”

Klotzbach also reminded the public that we’re still a ways out from the start of the season, and later forecasts will be more accurate. “There’s still a lot that can change.”

The report lays out the life and demise of Idalia, including that the storm peaked at a Category 4 before weakening at landfall on Aug. 30. And while the storm directly hit a mostly remote portion of Florida’s Big Bend, it flooded areas across Florida’s west coast, including parts of the Tampa Bay area.

Idalia was far from the costliest or deadliest storm in state history. However, the report lays out the sheer power of the storm, including a 12-foot storm surge along its path.

Idalia was the third-strongest hurricane to harm Florida’s Big Bend region, behind only the 1896 Cedar Key Hurricane and Hurricane Easy in 1950.

Here are five things to know about Idalia based on the report.

1. Storm surge inundated the west coast

Idalia made landfall where the coastline is cushioned by wetlands and forests. Despite the natural barriers, Idalia’s storm surge flooded coastal towns across Taylor, Dixie and Levy counties.

Along the Steinhatchee River, close to the storm’s landfall, a water gauge recorded water rising 7 feet in just an hour.

“It just goes to show that if you don’t evacuate and you wait to evacuate until the storm surge starts, you’re probably out of luck,” said Jeff Masters, a former scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In Tampa Bay, Idalia’s storm surge reached up to 5 feet, the report stated.

“Idalia demonstrated that Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge,” Masters said.

Shallow water along the coast allows strong winds from hurricanes to push high amounts of water onshore. Even Idalia, which missed the area by more than 100 miles, still brought damaging surge to the area.

Nearly half the homes in St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres neighborhood were damaged by surge.

2. How Hurricane Idalia killed: rough seas and falling trees

Hurricane Idalia killed 12 people in the United States.

When a storm of Idalia’s size wallops land, hurricane experts blame the storm for both direct and indirect deaths. A direct death happens from a storm’s physical forces, like flooding or a debris strike.

Indirect deaths are harder to calculate, and usually happen from a storm’s damage. Somebody who dies from lost power, a health issue while clearing debris or contracting a disease from the storm’s floodwaters can count as an indirect death. These deaths can take experts months to determine.

Idalia directly killed eight people and indirectly killed four.

The direct deaths were all caused by rip currents and rough seas, and notably, seven happened outside Florida, according to the report.

The Florida death was a 60-year-old man who drowned in rough seas while windsurfing in Brevard County. Three others died in North Carolina, three in New Jersey and one in Delaware.

Three of the four deaths indirectly caused by Idalia were in Florida. Two people died in vehicle crashes while the storm was hitting the state. Two others, one in Florida and one in Georgia, died from falling trees during debris cleanup.

The few direct Florida deaths could be a signal that the advanced warnings helped educate residents of the incoming threats, while states to the north may not have been paying as much attention to Idalia’s risks, according to Florida state climatologist David Zierden.

3. More than $3 billion in damages

Most of the $3.6 billion in damage occurred in the Big Bend region.

Much of the damage was to the state’s agriculture industry. Strong winds blew through peanut and cotton crops, livestock and infrastructure, the report said.
The report acknowledges that had Idalia hit a more populated area, damage costs likely would have been higher.

“We were very fortunate that it did hit one of the least-populated areas of the Gulf Coast,” Masters said.

A storm surge of 12 feet could have been catastrophic for a built-up area, Masters said. Idalia’s cost, while still significant, ranks at the bottom of the country’s 50 most expensive storms.

4. How accurate was Idalia’s forecast?

Forecasters acknowledge that the storm system formed earlier than expected and that Idalia’s creation “was not particularly well forecast” in the early stages.

But as Idalia built steam, forecasters dialed in on the storm’s predicted track. Even while the storm was still south of Cuba, there was general agreement that it would land somewhere near Florida’s Big Bend region, according to a National Hurricane Center graphic depicting Idalia’s forecast tracks.

A hurricane’s intensity is usually harder to pin down.

While it was churning over the Gulf of Mexico, Idalia rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm with an estimated peak wind intensity of more than 130 mph.

But the storm made landfall during a low tide and as it was forming a new eyewall — which weakened the storm to a Category 3 — knocking down the peak storm surge.

National Hurricane Center forecasters “generally predicted the rapid intensification and weakening phases of Idalia well,” according to the report.

“As hurricane models become more sophisticated and refined, the skills of forecasting a hurricane’s path improve almost yearly,” Zierden said.

One improvement coming this year? The “cone of uncertainty” created by the National Hurricane Center is moving inland to better depict wind and flooding risks to areas outside of the immediate coastline. The experimental forecast should be ready around Aug. 15, according to the hurricane center.

5. A look ahead to next hurricane season

The hurricane center’s report comes a few months before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1. Soon, major research centers, including the hurricane center, will release outlooks for the season.

Idalia was the only landfalling storm in Florida, which is unusual. A possible reason is because this past season took place during an El Niño year, which typically suppresses hurricane activity. El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, typically fuels it.

This season’s forecasts will likely be influenced by a possible La Niña that is expected to settle in at the peak of hurricane season.

Last week, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said the globe is under a “La Niña watch.” By the time June rolls around, La Niña has a 55% chance of falling into place.

La Niña conditions typically fuel hurricane activity because it removes conditions that quell storm formation, like wind shear.

©2024 Tampa Bay Times. Visit tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Studies have shown that the strongest tropical storms are getting more intense because of climate change. So the traditional five-category Saffir-Simpson scale, developed more than 50 years ago, may not show the true power of the most muscular storms, two climate scientists suggest in a Monday study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. They propose a sixth category for storms with winds that exceed 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour).

Currently, storms with winds of 157 mph (252 kilometers per hour) or higher are Category 5. The study’s authors said that open-ended grouping doesn’t warn people enough about the higher dangers from monstrous storms that flirt with 200 mph (322 kph) or higher.

Several experts told The Associated Press they don’t think another category is necessary. They said it could even give the wrong signal to the public because it’s based on wind speed, while water is by far the deadliest killer in hurricanes.

Since 2013, five storms — all in the Pacific — had winds of 192 mph or higher that would have put them in the new category, with two hitting the Philippines. As the world warms, conditions grow more ripe for such whopper storms, including in the Gulf of Mexico, where many storms that hit the United States get stronger, the study authors said.

“Climate change is making the worst storms worse,” said study lead author Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkley National Lab.

It’s not that there are more storms because of climate change. But the strongest are more intense. The proportion of major hurricanes among all storms is increasing and it’s because of warmer oceans, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy, who wasn’t part of the research.

From time to time, experts have proposed a Category 6, especially since Typhoon Haiyan reached 195 mph wind speeds (315 kilometers per hour) over the open Pacific. But Haiyan “does not appear to be an isolated case,” the study said.

Storms of sufficient wind speed are called hurricanes if they form east of the international dateline, and typhoons if they form to the west of the line. They’re known as cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Australia.

The five storms that hit 192 mph winds or more are:

• 2013’s Haiyan, which killed more than 6,300 people in the Philippines.
• 2015’s Hurricane Patricia, which hit 215 mph (346 kph) before weakening and hitting Jalisco, Mexico.
• 2016’s Typhoon Meranti, which reached 195 mph before skirting the Philippines and Taiwan and making landfall in China.
• 2020’s Typhoon Goni, which reached 195 mph before killing dozens in the Philippines as a weaker storm.
• 2021’s Typhoon Surigae, which also reached 195 mph before weakening and skirting several parts of Asia and Russia.

If the world sticks with just five storm categories “as these storms get stronger and stronger it will more and more underestimate the potential risk,” said study co-author Jim Kossin, a former NOAA climate and hurricane researcher now with First Street Foundation.

Pacific storms are stronger because there’s less land to weaken them and more room for storms to grow more intense, unlike the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, Kossin said.

So far no Atlantic storm has reached the 192 mph potential threshold, but as the world warms more the environment for such a storm grows more conducive, Kossin and Wehner said.

Wehner said that as temperatures rise, the number of days with conditions ripe for potential Category 6 storms in the Gulf of Mexico will grow. Now it’s about 10 days a year where the environment could be right for a Category 6, but that could go up to a month if the globe heats to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. That would make an Atlantic Category 6 much more likely.

MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel said Wehner and Kossin “make a strong case for changing the scale,” but said it’s unlikely to happen because authorities know most hurricane damage comes from storm surge and other flooding.

Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said when warning people about storms his office tries “to steer the focus toward the individual hazards, which include storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes and rip currents, instead of the particular category of the storm, which only provides information about the hazard from wind. Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale already captures ‘catastrophic damage’ from wind so it’s not clear there would be a need for another category even if the storms were to get stronger.”

McNoldy, former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate, and University of Albany atmospheric sciences professor Kristen Corbosiero all say they don’t see the necessity for a sixth and stronger storm category.

“Perhaps I’ll change my tune when a rapidly intensifying storm in the Gulf achieves a Category 6,” Corbosiero said in an email.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

The Miami-based hurricane center said Thursday on the X social media platform that the new, experimental forecast tool will be ready around Aug. 15, just before the traditional peak of the hurricane season that begins June 1.

“This experimental graphic will help better convey wind hazard risk inland in addition to coastal wind hazards,” the center said in the post.

The traditional cone in use for years generally shows the forecast track of a hurricane or tropical storm but is focused on wind and storm surge along the coasts — and forecasters always warn not to focus on the center line alone. Heavy rains and strong winds can be deadly and cause significant damage inland, which happened in 2022 with Hurricane Ian, when 149 people died in Florida.

The goal of the expanded forecast cone is to make sure people who don’t live along a coast are aware of the dangers they could still face, said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center. The new cone features colors to show which places face threats in a much broader way than before. If someone lives in one of those areas, “you are under risk,” Rhome said.

There’s growing evidence that the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, are making the most severe hurricanes even more intense and increasing the likelihood that a developing hurricane will rapidly intensify, leading to more flooding and more powerful storm surges battering coastlines, experts say.

After Ian blasted across the Fort Myers area — where the most people died and the worst damage was caused — the storm kept dumping rain and toppling trees across a wide swath of the state. Floods were reported around Orlando and its theme parks, south to Kissimmee, east to Daytona Beach, and in central Florida’s cattle and citrus country.

Ian produced between 10 and 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain across much of central Florida, the hurricane center reported.

People near rivers were deeply and possibly unexpectedly affected. After Ian slogged through inland DeSoto County and the Peace River flooded the community, Fire Chief Chad Jorgensen urged residents to flee, saying the river was unpredictable and dangerous.

The first named storm of 2024 will be Alberto. The 2023 season saw 20 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including seven hurricanes. Only Hurricane Idalia struck the U.S., coming ashore in the lightly-populated Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast but also causing significant inland flooding.

As of 7 p.m. Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two was located about 85 miles northeast of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 140 miles west-southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba, moving northeast at 17 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph.

The National Hurricane Center has lowered its chances of forming again Friday night to 20% — down from the 70% chance it was given Thursday night.

“Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system’s chance of becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing,” the hurricane center’s latest advisory said.

There is still a chance for the system to produce tropical-storm-force winds in areas under a tropical storm watch, forecasters said. The forecast still shows a slight chance for it to become a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon or early Sunday morning, though the system is expected to be absorbed by a front by Monday morning.

“Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola,” the 4 p.m. forecast discussion said.

The system will move across southeastern Cuba Friday night, then the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Saturday morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Haiti. Tropical storm watches for Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands were all discontinued by Friday night.

Heavy rains started to reach parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti on Friday morning. The storm’s effects left thousands without power and caused flooding and landslides, the

The Jamaica Public Service Company said about 14,000 customers were without power Friday after the rain down trees, cut power lines and created landslides. At least 24 people were rescued from floodwaters in southeastern parts of the island, AP reported.

Forecasters said portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba and southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic may receive 4 to 8 inches of rain — with some areas getting up to 16 inches — through Sunday while another 2 to 4 inches are expected in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

The potential tropical cyclone comes on the heals of a non-tropical storm system that inundated South Florida with flooding rains and damaging winds equal in power to that of a tropical storm.

There have been 19 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, seven of which were hurricanes. Three of them were major hurricanes, meaning at least a Category 3.

After Vince, the final available name from the year’s initial 21-name list is Whitney.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report. 

The system now has a 70% chance of developing. Regardless, it may drench parts of Central America’s Caribbean coast and cause mudslides, the latest advisory said. It could produce heavy rains, flooding and landslides later this week in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The NHC also warned the southeastern Bahama and the Turks and Caicos Islands to monitor the progress of the system.

The system is not forecast to impact Florida.

It comes on the heals of a non-tropical storm system that inundated South Florida with flooding rains and damaging winds equal in power to that of a tropical storm. The hurricane center said the storm has has moved northeast away from Florida and is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

A high wind advisories remained in effect for parts of South Florida on Thursday afternoon.

The system will track quickly northeast across the Bahamas over the weekend, the latest advisory said.

There have been 19 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, seven of which were hurricanes. Three of them were major hurricanes, meaning at least a Category 3.

The next named storm would be Vince.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

The system is not expected to develop further before it reaches land by Saturday, though it is still likely to bring heavy rain to Central America, including Nicaragua and Honduras, throughout the weekend, with the possibility for flash flooding and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 8 p.m. Friday, it has a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days, and the system’s showers and thunderstorms remained disorganized.

So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 19 named storms, seven of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

The remaining storm names for 2023 are Vince and Whitney. If all those names end up being used this season, the National Hurricane Center would turn to the supplemental list of names from the World Meteorological Association. In previous years, the Greek alphabet was used for additional storm names — which had only happened twice before — during the record-shattering hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2020.

Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

ACAPULCO, Mexico (AP) — Estela Sandoval Díaz was huddled in her tiny concrete bathroom, sure these were the final moments of her life, when Hurricane Otis ripped off her tin roof.

With it went clothing, savings, furniture, photos and 33 years of the life Sandoval built piece-by-piece on the forgotten fringes of Acapulco, Mexico.

Sandoval was among hundreds of thousands of people whose lives were torn apart when the fastest intensifying hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific shredded the coastal city of 1 million, leaving at least 45 dead. The Category 5 hurricane damaged nearly all of Acapulco’s homes, left bodies bobbing along the coastline and much of the city foraging for food.

While authorities were hard at work restoring order in Acapulco’s tourist center — cutting through trees in front of high-rise hotels and restoring power — the city’s poorest, like Sandoval, said they felt abandoned. She and hundreds of thousands others lived two hours of terror last week, and now face years of work to repair their already precarious lives.

“The government doesn’t even know we exist,” Sandoval said. “They’ve only ever taken care of the resort areas, the pretty places of Acapulco. They’ve always forgotten us.”

It’s a sentiment that has long simmered in the city but has grown as many accuse the government of leaving them to fend for themselves after Otis hit.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has deployed more than 10,000 troops to deal with the hurricane’s aftermath along with 1,000 government workers to determine needs. He said 10,000 “packages” of appliances and other necessities — refrigerators, stoves, mattresses — had been collected and were ready to distribute to families in need.

“Everyone will be supported, count on us,” he pledged last week.

But few of the dozens of people The Associated Press spoke to said they’d received aid from the government, nor were they expecting much.

Years of hard work lost in a day

Sandoval and her family have spent decades living a stone’s throw away from the beachside high-rises and luxury stores lining Acapulco’s chicest district, the Diamond Zone.

Living in a two-room concrete house with no potable water and unpaved roads, that glamor never reached their doorstep. Referred to by locals as the “sunken neighborhood,” Viverista is always hit hardest by natural disasters.

Three years ago, Sandoval beamed with pride when, after 25 years of saving, she put a foot of concrete on the floor and a new metal roof on her house so it wouldn’t flood every time it rained. But that seemed a lifetime away Friday as Sandoval and her children picked through their soggy belongings.

“I was so happy because finally I had a sturdy roof, and my house was finally beautiful. But now — this is the first time I’ve been able to cry — I don’t know what we’re going to do,” the 59-year-old said. “I don’t think I’ll live another 20 years to fix it.”

Their home was surrounded by ankle-deep putrid water. Sandoval, her husband and two neighbors were sleeping under a sheet of metal propped against the house. She picked through scraps in her bedroom, taking note of what was ruined and planning how to ration water and gas for cooking.

Mexico’s government has tallied at least 220,000 homes damaged and says 47 people remain missing. Most residents expect the death toll to rise, based on the slow government response and overall devastation, with one city business leader estimating it will exceed 100.

Military, public security and forensics officials told the AP they were not permitted to provide details on the death toll or the search for bodies. Meanwhile, thousands of panicked family members desperately hunted for missing loved ones.

On Saturday, López Obrador blasted critics of his hurricane response, saying journalists and the political opposition had exaggerated casualties. He said Mexico’s security minister would provide an update on the human toll “without lying.”

“They don’t care about people’s pain, they want to hurt us. What they want is for there to be a lot of death so they can blame us,” López Obrador said.

Strongest storm to hit Eastern Pacific coast

Otis intensified within hours from a tropical storm into the strongest hurricane to hit the Eastern Pacific coast, taking many by surprise. Many experts attributed the unanticipated burst of force to the effects of climate change, with warming seas acting as fuel for storms like Otis.

“We’re seeing so many more cases of these just astonishing rapid intensification events,” said climate scientist Jim Kossin. “This is exactly the kind of thing we would expect to find as the climate warms.”

The aftermath of the storm has once again underscored the disproportionate effect the climate crisis is having on poor communities and countries.

Sandoval and her husband slept until the 165-mph (266-kph) winds and crash of trees falling woke them at midnight. They sprinted out of the house to a set of square-meter (yard) concrete bathrooms, clinging to the plastic doors the hurricane threatened to tear off.

When she emerged around 2 a.m., peering through a steady drizzle, Sandoval saw her furniture soaked and her fridge, stove and other possessions destroyed. She said she could “smell the sadness in the air.”

With sparse food, water and gasoline, and no cellphone service, Sandoval and her family could do little more than scavenge for supplies in bare supermarkets. Avid supporters of López Obrador, they crossed their fingers he would follow through on his promise. They spent days waiting, but the only signs of government presence were navy helicopters circling overhead.

“When you’re completely enveloped by something like this — so fragile, so violent — you ask yourself, when are they going to come?” she said.

Many others faced the same question.

Following the storm, the city descended into a state of lawlessness. Trees and rubble blocked the main road for a day, and no cellphone signal left its 1 million people effectively cut off from the world.

Without options, Sandoval and many others took basic goods like food and toilet paper from ransacked stores and funneled gasoline out of tubes from broken-down gas stations. Those with chronic illnesses scrambled to find medicine they needed to survive.

Residents foraging for food in warehouses Saturday said they waited hours in the beating sun for food and water from a government aid truck only to find there wasn’t enough for them.

Children stood on roadsides waving empty water bottles and families screamed, “Help us! We’re desperate!” at cars with shattered windshields and military trucks passing by.

Residents like Natividad Reynoso, whose business selling plants to hotels was wiped out by the storm, worried it would mean the long-term destruction of Acapulco’s main economic engine.

“We’re an Acapulco that lives off tourism,” the 41-year-old said.

By the weekend, cellphone signal was being restored, aid was being distributed and the military cleared trees and rubble from the city center, a stark contrast with poor areas where chaos still reigned.

Fisherman Eleazar García Ramirez, 52, was still wrapping his mind around the devastation as he tinkered inside a boat with a cracked mast on the beach surrounded by the remains of boats and broken trees.

He has spent recent days diving into the ocean to pull out bloated bodies bobbing next to sunken boats, he said.

He weathered the storm on a fishing boat his boss asked him to watch over, fearing that to refuse would cost him his job.

“This is what we survive off of, and there’s not a lot of work in Acapulco,” he said.

The majority of the dead he and others found were fishermen fearful of losing their livelihoods or yacht captains told by owners to stay with the boats, he said. Authorities said most of the bodies found in recent days had drowned.

García Ramirez and other fishermen pulled the boats onto the city’s Manzanilla Beach when Otis was still a Category 2 storm. A friend was watching over a boat 20 meters (yards) up the beach.

The boat García Ramirez was in was pulled into the waves, when he heard screams of “help me!” as he clung to the boat’s metal poles.

When he finally peered out into the dark night he saw his friend’s boat floating alone at sea. His friend never appeared.

“It’s sad because there are many people that didn’t need to be on these boats, but their bosses decided that we’re worth nothing,” he said. “They’re not interested in the well-being of their workers, all they care about is their own economic well-being.”

Associated Press Science Writer Seth Borenstein in Washington and photographer Félix Márquez in Acapulco, Mexico, contributed to this report.